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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still